Finding a way out of the Wilderness in the 21st Century

Monday, November 10, 2003

The most noteworthy part of the Newsweek November 6-7 poll on Bush's reelect numbers is down on the generic question, and the demographic responses to it.

Usually any time there's a poll that reflects party affiliation, or tests generic votes, there's a marked gender gap between the men and the women; the men skewing toward the Republican, while the women lean more Democratic. The gap tends to run around 10% or so. (Say, women go 55-45% to the Democrats, while the men go 45-55%.)

This poll doesn't really show a significant gender gap; the slight one it does show is negligable and in the margin of error, and a majority of men are against his reelection. That surprises me.

Additionally, independents are pretty heavily against Bush, 53-40%, which isn't surpising, given Bush's hard right tendencies.

All the Democrats (with the exception of Gephardt) are within the margin of error against Bush, in the specific matchups. With a 4% margin of error, George Bush's 48% vs. Wesley Clark's 45% is a tie. The dems do well, considering their name recognitions are all very low, and people don't like to endorse candidates they know nothing about.

All in all, Bush's numbers continue to trend down, unlike Clinton's or Reagan's at this point in their terms. That is bad news for GW.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home