So I just got back from the Wellstone movie, and I gotta say, it's as heartbreaking as it was two years and three days ago.

It was a great experience, and it changed my perspective on the memorial completely. I used to blame Rick Kahn for losing the race, losing the seat, and losing the Senate, but after taking a closer look at Paul and how he effected change, I can understand how Rick felt up there on stage at Williams Arena. Wellstone would not have faulted him. Rick's pleas, though awkward, were heartfelt.

I don't blame him anymore.

And it's a wonderful film. The elevator guys on Capitol Hill saying Paul was the only Senator who'd talk to them and treat them like they were people too? Totally cool. A highlight.

My eyes are a little red and puffy right now. Kinda like they were two years and three days ago.

Two weeks out from November 2nd, I've got new Senate predictions.

Safe Dem seats plus those not up for election: 40

Safe GOP seats plus those not up: 43

Unchanged predictions (see below):

Murray beats Nethercutt
Boxer beats Jones
Bond beats Farmer
Voinovich beats Fingerhut
Salazar beats Coors
Daschle beats Thune
Castor beats Martinez

Same predictions, new news:

Knowles beats Murkowski - Knowles is leading two weeks out, holding a lead he opened months ago and has never since ceded. It's utterly amazing, but Democrats are going to pick up an Alaska seat. Ironically, if Murkowski were more conservative, she'd probably be winning this one in a walk.

Carson beats Coburn - Months ago I wrote about Coburn's insane statements. Since then he's insulted Indians and residents of Oklahoma, and made bizarre comments about "rampant lesbianism" in the public schools. This guy's a loon, and he's successfully beating himself. Dennis Hastert is already conceding the race.

Feingold beats Michels - Even with Bush polling strongly in Wisconsin, Feingold looks safe. The NRSC's decided against committing any money, so Tim Michels the Millionaire is on his own against Russ.

Obama beats Keyes - The Republican Party of Illinois is just pathetic. They decided to try and bring in another black man with the hopes of bloodying Obama before he gets to the national stage. Instead they're looking a blowout which threatens even some previously safe House incumbents (Crane, Hyde, and Weller, in that order). Even the state chairwoman says she isn't certain she'll vote Keyes. With Bush losing big, Keyes losing even bigger, will IL Republicans have any reason to come out and vote? Looks like they won't.

Isakson beats Majette - I still doubt Majette can pull this race off, but who knows. She's clearly ambitious, and perhaps she knows something I don't, after abandoning a safe House seat for this race. Democratic polls show her within 10 points, but it'd be the largest upset of the cycle if she wins this one. Isakson's pretty safe.

Changed predictions:

Mongiardo beats Bunning - The spectacle in Kentucky is sad. Jim Bunning clearly is unfit to run for reelection, with newspapers speculating about the Senator's deteriorating mental condition. He broke the rules of his first debate with Mongiardo by refusing to appear in person, and by using a telepromter, and refused to show up for the second. He is no longer making stump speeches, and turned down a joint Meet the Press appearance.

Apparently the Kentucky Republicans want to pull a Wendell Anderson. If they can manage to get Bunning over the finish line, he will then resign, and Governor Ernie Fletcher will appoint himself to the seat.

Democrat Wendell Anderson tried that in 1977 Minnesota after Senator Mondale's ascension to the Vice Presidency, and in 1978, Republican Dave Durenberger unseated him in the special election, Rudy Boschwitz won the other open seat, and Republicans took the Governorship. Kentucky Republicans would be wise to remember.

Long story short, this is playing really badly in Kentucky, and I think Mongiardo is a viable candidate. A Dem poll shows the race tied 43-43, and if Bunning refuses to bow out of the race, Mongiardo should win.

Vitter beats field - In the open seat race in Louisiana, Vitter is polling at 47% in the open primary. He very well could break 50% in the November 2nd primary, thus becoming Senator. Even if he doesn't, Louisiana looks set to elect its first Republican Senator. I don't know that either John or Kennedy can beat him in a runoff.

Tenenbaum versus DeMint too close to call - Against all logic, this race seems winnable for the Dems. The DSCC has been hammering DeMint on his national sales tax proposal, and South Carolinians are abandoning him over it. He's also been afflicted with Coburnitis, saying unwed pregnant women and gays shouldn't be allowed to be public school teachers. Still, this is South Carolina, so I make no prediction.

50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 too close to call.

So today on C-Span there was a panel discussion on the '04 elections and the future of the judiciary between Nan Aron of the Alliance for Justice, playing on Team Good, and Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform (Seemingly a strange choice for a discussion on law), representing Team Evil.

Anyhow, the debate eventually came to the subject of lower court nominations, which I've covered down below before.

To recap: the right has made it a priority to get its ideologues appointed up and down the line to district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court, from Reagan era on. Democrats have been far more lackadaisical while controlling the White House, with both Carter and Clinton making judicial appointments a low priority, often nominating centrist, or even conservative judges.

This fact notwithstanding, Senate Republicans made sure to obstruct Clinton's nominees at every opportunity throughout the 90s. Often times Clinton's moderate nominees were bottled up by the Senate without ever receiving a floor vote, thus keeping vacancies open for Bush, who has tried to fill them with right-wing extremists.

While confirming an overwhelming majority of Bush's nominees (and at a far higher rate than Clinton's ever were), the Democrats have stopped action on a few of the most egregious nominees, like those who supported Jim Crow, and when they lost control of the Senate in 2002, they resorted to the filibuster.

That's the background.

The Republicans scream bloody murder at the use of the filibuster for judicial nominees, regardless of the fact they found it quite useful in blocking Abe Fortas and others back in the day. They've tried to reform the filibuster rules for judicial nominees, effectively eliminating it on the subject matter of their choice.

In the panel discussion, the liberal got herself into the position of defending the filibuster as a key check on unrestrained majority rule, and Grover Norquist called her out on it, saying liberals were no fans of the filibuster rule back when the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was being debated, and filibustered by the likes of Strom Thurmond.

He's right. Let's abolish the filibuster on judicial nominees, and let's abolish the filibuster period. If the "advise and consent" responsibility of the Senate is unconstitutionally abridged by the filibuster in judicial confirmations, then the responsibility of the Senate to pass bills is abridged by the use of the filibuster against everything else.

Why are we so reluctant to expose the Republican whining for what it is? Call the bluff, Senate Dems. Move to end the anti-democratic filibuster, permanently. It'll bolster democracy, and it will aid liberal aims in the long run with a Senate that's deeply skewed towards conservative, small-state constituencies. As it is, the filibuster can be sustained with something like 20% of the country's population's Senators behind it.

Let's get rid of it.