I was commenting on a thread on Matthew Yglesias' blog, and I figured I'd cross post it here.

Minnesota's much heralded lurch to the right is largely a myth.

In 2000, Gore/Nader beat Bush 54-46%, with Bush running as a mushy moderate Republican.

The 2002 elections were an anomaly, due to Wellstone's death and the memorial debacle. Even after a backlash that was at least partially real (I knew we were screwed when even I felt uncomfortable watching Rick Kahn speak), Coleman, whose tone was of moderation, won only by a 1% margin. Polls prior to Wellstone's death had shown a Wellstone lead, polls prior to the memorial had given Mondale a solid lead.

Governor Pawlenty won due to the center-left vote being split among three candidates. The Democrat Moe won 34%, the Green Pentel won 2%, and the Independence candidate Penny took 17%. Penny unmistakeably drew from Moe more than Pawlenty. (Mondale outran Moe by 13%, whereas Coleman outran Pawlenty by only 4%. Penny = 17%)

Polling for 2004's general election looks pretty superb. I think it's around 51-37 for Kerry. Minnesota should be lean, if not solidly Democratic. Hopefully we'll hear the end of the swing state rumors after November.

Looking forward to 2006, Mark Dayton is well-positioned, with approval/disapproval ratings in the ballpark of 57/15 or so. Coleman's approval is in the same range, but with approximately double the disapproval (in the 30s).

Reports of the DFL's death have been greatly exaggerated.